2015 Chicago Men’s – Playoff Scenarios (July 20)

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Updated: July 24, 2015

The dust has now settled from Week 6 Games and we are left with about a million scenarios heading into next week’s Regular Season Finale aka the Volleyball Tourney.  This week, the Rankings will sort of shift to more of a Playoff Scenarios breakdown.. Teams will be listed by Standings and we’ll go through what may/can/might/should potentially come from next Monday Night. More on that in a bit.. Here’s the Weekly Highlight Video!

Before we get to the Playoff Scenarios, here’s a Reminder on Playoff Formats and Tiebreakers regarding Playoff Seeding.. Also, here’s a Link to the blank Playoff Bracket.

Playoff Format:  

1. 16 Teams make the single-elimination Playoffs and will be seeded based on points.

1a. In the Sweet 16, 5 of 8 Games, will be Hoops Games and the remaining 3 Games will be Floor Hockey. Teams will get to choose their Sport in order based on Seed until no more choices remain.

1b. In the Elite8, 3 of 4 Games, will be Hoops Games and the remaining Game will be Floor Hockey. Teams will get to choose their Sport in order based on Seed until no more choices remain.

EX) Next week, the 1 Seed will get to choose Hoops or Floor Hockey for their Sweet16 vs. the 16 Seed.. Then the 2 seed chooses, then the 3 seed, etc. until either 5 Hoops Games or 3 Floor Hockey Games are picked..

Tiebreakers: 

a. Head to Head. (If 3+ teams are tied then we will still use Head to Head.  Teams will be seeded in the following order depending on their Head to Head record: 2-0, 1-0, 0-0, 0-1, 0-2 etc.)

b. Teams’ Individual Win/Loss Records. If teams did not play Head to Head then we will use the teams individual records… If a team advanced past the pool stages of volleyball then that counts as a W (if not its a Loss). So teams have 7 games in their record.

c. Strength of Schedule. If still tied, we will go to Strength of Schedule.  We will add together the total points (from Standings) of the opponenets for each team for the entire season. Whoever had a stronger strength of schedule will win the tiebreaker. (VBall games are not scored in this).

Volleyball Tourney Point Breakdown:

7 Group Winners advance to Knockout Rounds get 7 points each.

4 Wild Card Teams also advance to Knockout Rounds and get 3 points each.

Teams that reach the Final4 of the Knockout Rounds get an additional 3 points.

1st Place gets an additional 25 points.

2nd Place gets an additional 13 points.

3rd Place gets an additional 5 points.

The maximum any Team can get for winning the Tourney is 35 points.

 

Playoff Scenarios:

*Remember, each Seed has added importance at the top, as we’ll go in order for Hoops/Hockey selections in the Sweet16 and Elite8 Rounds.

 

Currently tied for 1st

Team Sternberg (Kelly Parker Home Collective) & Team Zimmerman (AMPY)

Both Teams continued to take care of business on Monday Night and they’ve opened up a gap (albeit small) over the rest of the Top Teams in the Standings.  In past seasons, the #1 Seed was more of a ceremonial “Regular Season Championship”.. However, this year the #1 Seed can really dictate their fate for the first couple of rounds.. It’s gigantic..

Here’s the deal for them.. In a doomsday scenario, it’s feasible for 5 Teams to jump both of them.. It’s a complicated deal, but if a Team that is currently within 35 points of them wins on Monday Night, then a Team that is within 23 points of them gets 2nd, a Team within 13 points of them gets 3rd, Team Hadelman gets 4th and Team Bemoras wins their Group.  Is that likely? No. But that’s the worst case scenario..

Then of course, they are currently tied, so one of them will jump the other.. Either through advancing further on Monday Night or through Tiebreakers.. Meaning the lowest either of these Teams can fall to is the 7 seed.

As for their ceiling, obviously they can finish #1 and #2 as well.. They’ll start clinching top seeds the further they advance on Monday Night as well.. Everyone would much rather be in their position.. It’s likely both Teams will need at the very least a few points to remain at the top..

If either Teams wins the tourney, that Team will be #1 when the PLayoffs open.

Possible seeds are 1-7. Monday is huge.

 

Win Your Group, and potentially Jump the Top Teams

Team Bemoras (popchips) – Currently in 3rd and 6 points back of 1st

They looked dominant this past Monday Night on the Football Field and they jumped into 3rd of the Standings as a result.. They’ve shown this season that they can win in any sport and if you catch them in something other than Hoops, you are likely going to be the underdog..

As for Scenarios.. They can be jumped by a maximum of 6 Teams if they don’t get any points and everything goes against them.. That’s unlikely however.. If they do get blanked Monday Night, it’s doubtful they’ll stay in the Top 5 however..

They are the only Team in the League that can claim this.. If they win their Group, and the current top2 Teams don’t get any points, it’s feasible for them to wind up with the #1 Seed.. Depending on what happens behind them and how the Tourney ends of course.. But it’s possible.

Winning the Tourney, means they finish in #1..

So they can finish seeded anywhere from 1-9.. Monday is huge.

 

Get to Monday’s Final4, and potentially Jump the Top Teams

Team Hadelman (Theory) – Currently in 4th and 7.5 points back of 1st

To be perfectly honest, Seeding may matter less to Team Hadelman than it does to other Top Teams. While other Teams will have a clear cut option for Hoops v. Hockey.. Team Hadelman is likely the top Hockey Team in the League and can claim to being one of the best Hoops crews around as well.. To them the match-ups will dictate which way to go.. They are going to be in good shape no matter what..

They find themselves 7.5 points back, which means they’ll need to do more than just win their group (worth 7 points) to jump the Top Teams.. Now, if they get any points on Monday Night and Team Bemoras doesn’t, they’ll jump them.. If they can qualify for the Final4 by winning their Group.. That earns them 10 points and could potentially be enough for them to land in the #1 spot by night’s end..

Advancing will be tough however as VBall Tourney titans – Team Hakimian are in their group.. If everything goes against them and they get 0 points on Monday Night.. 5 Teams could potentially jump them.. Unlikely. Very unlikely. But possible..

If they win the Tourney, the #1 seed is theirs..

They can finish seeded anywhere from 1-9.. Monday is huge.

 

Get to Monday’s Championship Game, and potentially Jump the Top Teams

Team Fallows (Bekin’s Lake County) & Team Gross (Chicago Trolley & Double Decker) – Currently tied for 5th and 13 points back of 1st

Both Teams got key Week 6 Wins as we head into the Regular Season’s final night.. These two Teams have a giant range of seeds where they can land.. Team Fallows is among the favorites to take the VBall Crown.. Team Gross hasn’t experienced a Chicago Men’s League VBall tourney before and they won’t have a long time to get acclimated. Group play moves fast.. They should be up to the task though..

As for where they could wind up post-Monday Night.. IF either Team wins their Group, and goes on to get 3rd Place in Tourney.. That could be enough (15pts in all) to land in the #1 overall seed.. That of course means no Teams ahead of them get any points, and no one jumps them from behind.. Honestly not likely.. But still possible.. If they get to the Championship Game, their odds for landing #1 gets a whole lot greater.. It really minimizes the Teams that can leap them from behind in the Standings as well.. Winning the tourney doesn’t lock up #1 for them but it would be really promising..

In terms of nightmare scenarios.. If either Team gets shut-out Monday Night, it’s possible for 4 Teams to pass them both up.. Then of course, they have to worry about each other as well.

Each Team can finish seeded 1-10.  Monday is huge.

 

Team Maione (SportsLock) – Currently in 7th and 18 points back of 1st

Great W on Monday Night.. A Game they had waited a year for.. They took down the Defending Champs Team Watts in Hoops, almost a year after Team Watts knocked them out in the Elite8.  Redemption is a sweet thing..

It’s no secret that Team Maione’s bread and butter in All Sports Series is Hoops and for them to ensure that they will be on the Hoops court in the Opening Rounds of the Playoffs they are going to have to make a run next Monday Night..

Their scenarios are fairly similar to Fallows and Gross just above them.. The math is a little bit more definite for them.. The only way for them to get to the #1 Seed (and it’s still doable) is to get to the Championship Game on Monday Night in Volleyball.. That wouldn’t totally assure them the #1 spot.. It would be dependent on what other Teams did, but the odds would be high.. They can jump Team Fallows and Team Gross to get into 5th if they win their Group and the other two go pointless on Monday.

Looking at worst case scenarios.. 4 Teams can potentially pass them on Monday Night.. This would drop them into a place where they have no control over their fate.. Besides from just winning and, as it turns out, they do that quite well..

They could finish anywhere from 1-11.  Monday is huge.

 

Win the Tourney, and potentially Jump the Top Teams

Team Lehrman (Muchacha Salsa) & Team Shlofrock (Crystal Lake CDJ) – Currently tied for 8th and 26 points back of 1st

Team Shlofrock lost a close one with Team Hadelman on Monday Night and in doing so allowed Team Lehrman to tie them in the Standings after their Softball W.   Just to reiterate, the Tourney Champs on Monday Night could take home 35 points and that keeps a lot of different things in play.. Each of these Teams have the athletes capable of getting hot and taking it on Monday Night.  They are 26 points out from the Top Teams and, thus, conceivably could still wind up in the #1 spot come next week.  A lot would have to go right in terms of where the other points fall, but it’s still possible..  They are within 8 points of 7th and 12 points of the Teams tied for 5th.. That means a Final4 trip on Monday Night and some help could get them a Top5 seed which still would likely allow them to make a choice in the Sweet16..

If things go South on Monday Night and they get shutout.. There are a ton of Teams that sit just behind them ready to leap them.. 7 Teams could potentially jump both of them AND then these Two Teams may have to go a tiebreaker as well.. Their range of seeds is just insane entering the final night. They are IN the dance though.. The final two that have clinched Playoff berths.

They could wind up literally anywhere from 1-16.  Monday is huge.

 

Still have work left to do entering Monday, but IN for now

Team Apuli (Biagg’s), Team Cohen (Manny’s Deli), Team Cruse (Sandusky Cabinets), Team Kornblatt (Camp Ojibwa) & Team Palmer (Danley’s Garage World) – All Currently tied for 10th with 53 points and 31 points back of 1st

To say it’s a logjam in the middle of the Standings would be a gross understatement.. The amount of tiebreakers that may potentially be in play a week from now is just sickening.. 4 of these Teams were tied with 53 points coming into last Monday Night.. However, none of them could get Ws to separate themselves from the pack and they allowed Team Kornblatt to catch them coming off what is their biggest W in years.. Captain Matthew shouldered a lot of the offensive burden by taking two short screens to the house.. The other Matthew.. Lebron… Emer.. sealed the deal with an INT for the W..  The rest of these Teams are now coming into the final week without momentum..

Need to peel away at the onion that is this 5-Team tie..  Here’s what we know:  None of have officially clinched Playoff spots, however at least two of them have to make it mathematically. Likely more than that will.. 3 of the 5 will take part in Group G which truly will have a Playoff vibe to it come next Monday.. Teams Cohen, Cruse and Kornblatt will be battling each other for the same Playoff spots… It’s possible all 3 of them still make it, but one will have a huge advantage when it comes to seeding by winning the Group.

All 5 Teams are 31 points out of 1st which means it mathematically feasible for them to finish in the #1 spot believe it or not.. Seriously. That’s how tight everything is.. Teams who haven’t clinched before the final week could end up with the #1 (or 2 or 3 or 4 etc.) seeds come next week.. Many, many stars would have to align for that to take place.. What’s more realistic and still important is getting up to the #7 seed where a choice can potentially still be made in the Sweet16 with Hoops/Hockey.  They are 13 points back of Team Maione who currently sits in #7.  That means they need to take at least 3rd place to get a chance at jumping into the Top7 and would still need some help on where the other VBall points fall.. They are also just 5 points back of Team Lehrman and Team Shlofrock who are tied for 8th.. So a Group Win (7pts) could get them into the Top9 at the very least.

Let’s talk doomsday scenarios.. It’s possible that 1-4 of these Teams get zero points on Monday Night.. For those Teams it’s possible that they will wind up on the outside looking in on the Playoffs… There are 3 Teams that are within striking distance with long runs in the Tourney.. Defending Champs Team Watts is lurking just behind them.. A mere 7 points back.. Team Watts took 3rd a year ago in the VBall Tourney and seemingly will be better this year.. Team Sharrin is under 10 points back which means they are a Final4 trip from leaping them.. Finally, the Dynasty Team Hakimian.. They are on the outside looking in on the Playoffs but have won multiple VBall Tourneys in their day.. If Team Hakimian places in the Top3, they too can pass this bunch..

Craziness will ensue for sure.

Possible seeds are from 1-OUT. Monday is huge.

 

Holding on for dear life

Team Watts (VIP Express Limo) – Currently in 15th with 46 points and 38 points back of 1st

Here’s the deal for the Defending Champs.. Everyone expects them in the Dance.. They won the whole thing last year from the 10 seed. Frankly, they don’t care what seed they have.. Nor should they really.  They are a deceptively good Floor Hockey Team and have had much success in it through the years. Everyone knows their Hoops prowess as well..  Last year they finished 3rd in the VBall Tourney, so this is a night where they start to get on their Playoff roll..

Let’s talk seeds.. They can get up as high as #3 if they Win and get some help along the way.. Winning their group would pull them into that large group just above and if they can get a repeat from last year and take 3rd.. They could jump up to 8-9 range..

In terms of worst case scenarios.. If they somehow get bounced early, which no one expects.. There are 3 Teams who could potentially leap them.. The magic number for them though is 2. If Team Watts goes scoreless and 2 of the following 3 leap them: Sharrin, Hakimian and Manilow.. The Defending Champs defense will end much, much earlier than expected.  Again, not likely..

Their range is 3-OUT. Monday is huge.

Team Sharrin (Sunset Foods) – Currently in 16th with 43.5 points and 40.5 points back of 1st

It’s simple for them.. Do better than the Teams below them in the Standings and they’ll make the Playoffs. Don’t and there could be some heartbreak..

They currently hold the 16th and final Playoff spot.. Their range is the same as Team Watts above.. They can get all the way up to #3 if they were to win the Tourney and things went right with where the other points fell on Monday.. Winning their group or advancing as a Wild Card won’t help their seed too much but it will go a long way in securing their spot in the dance.. If they make the Final4 on Monday Night they could jump a few Teams in that big clump of Teams currently tied in 10th.. Which would be huge for their Playoff lives..

In terms of doomsday scenarios.. It’s likely Team Hakimian is going to get some points.. Team Sharrin holds a 4.5 point lead on them..  So, if Team Hakimian wins their Group and Team Sharrin goes scoreless.. They could be in trouble.. Again, Wild Card Teams get 3 points for advancing.. Group Winners get 7.. If Team Sharrin advances as a Wild Card, 3+4.5 is 7.5.. Team Hakimian would then need to get to the Final4 to pass them as the 7 points from a Group Win wouldn’t be enough.. They also need to worry about Team Manilow who are still in it as well!

Possible seeds are 3-OUT. Monday is huge.

 

Outside looking in

Team Hakimian (Dr. Jacob D.D.S. Navy) – Currently in 17th and 4.5 points back of 16th

The Dynasty Team Hakimian did what they needed to this past Monday Night and got a big 13 points.. They are 3-0 in Hoops now this Season (no surprise for the Back2Back Chicago Hoops League Champs) but they have struggled in other sports.  They’ve gotten more points from VBall than any other Team in Chicago Men’s Leagues past… A big part of those Teams is now gone however and they won’t have much time to get used to playing without the big man..

It’s do or die from the jump for Team Hakimian.. There will certainly be some added pressure on them, but if anyone can take it, it’s the most successful franchise in All Sports Series history.. Here’s the deal.. They are 4.5 points back of the magic #16.. That means they must win their Group OR advance as a Wild Card to the Final4 AND Team Sharrin cannot get any points.. They also have to be mindful of Team Manilow who is within striking distance of them as well.. They finished 2nd last year and surely have plans to return to the Championship Game once again on Monday Night..  They are one of the favorites and can get up #5 if all goes well on Monday Night.. All eyes will be on them Monday. They are used to it.

Potential seeds are 5-OUT. Monday is huge.

Team Manilow (SLA Insurance) – Currently in 18th and 30.5 points back of 16th

The math involved here is fairly simple.. They need to win the whole thing Monday Night AND Team Sharrin can’t advance as a Group Winner AND Team Hakimian must get knocked out before the Final4.

They need to leap both Teams and then could land in 16th. They technically could leap Team Watts for 15th as well.

Possible finish is 15-OUT. Monday is huge.

 

Other 2

Team Goldman (Dr. Jacob D.D.S.) Orange) and Team Kaplan (Weil Foot & Ankle)

Both Teams have highlights this year even though the Standings may not reflect it.  Both Teams got the short-end of the stick when it comes to the Schedule as well.. They may not be dancing come the Playoffs BUT, they will still have a ton of impact on the League next week.  As well, many Teams have utilized late-season surges to gain momentum and get going for a following season. It happens all the time!  Don’t sleep on them spoiling a season or two next week!

 

That’s it for this week. Have a great weekend and see you at the Tourney on Monday!

– Holden